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Today, everyone believes the inverse relationship to be true. That the financial system is broken, that the Fed has lost control and that Islamic Jihadists or a Middle Eastern state(s) will bring us to our knees. While there is some truthiness in shades of that – it’s more hyperbole than reality.
It was the confluence of the Tech Bubble bursting in 2000, the events of 9/11 and a commodity sector that was overdue for outperformance – that gave birth to this bubble. As with every bubble – it starts with a legitimate thesis for outperformance – and then runs away with emotion. It is only after we reach the dizzying heights of the sun that we realize the danger we so confidently embraced.
That moment seems imminent.