Market Anthropology: Groundhogs in July

Monday, July 16, 2012

Groundhogs in July

Here is a quick follow-up to last weeks note on Spain’s IBEX market. 
“I will be keeping a close eye on the IBEX’s RSI this week to see if it once again bounces from the midpoint of the metric or breaks convincingly below, as the SPX did in January of 2009 – ushering in the final leg of the bear market.” 

Considering where the IBEX is currently trading on this Monday morning (~6550), after the ECB shifted its stance on Spanish debt – it looks like the IBEX will eventually work its way over the ledge lows from early June.  

While the SPX will likely outperform as it did in the first half of the year, the fact that the IBEX saw its shadow this week, will only provide another headwind for risk appetites in the equity markets going forward. With that said, I believe the recovery rally in the SPX that started in June – still has room to run higher. 

Chart through Friday 13th close

More to come in this line of thinking.