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“It is hard to deny that there is at the very least asymmetry in the above chart with regards to each respective rate cycle (trough to new lows). The present cycle (approximately 70 years) is actually following the greatest degree of symmetry – likely because of the historic spike in interest rates in the early 1980’s drawing out the trend. In both the previous cycles shown (~ 60 and 55 years, respectively), the final leg down is swift. However, once the previous cycle low was broken, rates tended to base for an extended period of time.“ Man Versus Nature – June 1, 2011
From strictly a structural perspective, yields had been following a declining trend line for several hundred years. The chart below only depicts the past ~ 140 years. Considering the market is running out of road on the downside and the relative symmetry of the broader interest rate cycle over the past 70 years, the mirrored trajectory would imply that rates would remain in a range for some time. As the charts depicts – and similar to asset cycle tops, yields trough over a much longer timeframe. In light of the mirrored move trajectory, extended – even by Fedspeak definition, may be a relative phrase.