Market Anthropology: Dollar Holler

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Dollar Holler

Although I may attempt to appraise various markets from both sides of the field, the underlying perennial impression made by my comparative work continues to be a resilient and strengthening US dollar index. 

Following in silver’s prescient footsteps the week before, the USDX completed its retracement move lower and reversed sharply higher last week. 
Below is the same comparative model – just fitted closer to the momentum and price lows made in the first half of the series. 

Considering how momentum has been unfurling and coiling, I believe the USDX – very similar to the equity markets at this time last year – is poised to break substantially higher over the coming weeks. 

Assuming that the negative feedback loop with the dollar continues – it will likely be at the expense of silver, the commodity complex – and risk appetites in general.  

The NDX closed on Friday right below its 38.2% retracement level. It is my expectation that should weakness continue, the comparison with the SPX 2007 top will soon diverge dramatically. With hindsight 20/20 – I believe we are more likely to see a swift decline, rather than a protracted move lower.