Tuesday, July 12, 2011
A Trapped Tape
A funny thing happened on the way to a higher high…
The bulls got trapped – again.
Maybe it will be as fleeting as the half pirouette the market pulled at the 200 day moving average a few weeks back. One thing is certain – the market has been in a trading range for over the past six months and is currently sitting at the mid point of that range. This is actually quite similar to what became last years consolidation phase – but tighter and softer. I say softer because although the headlines and tangible risk propellants are even more worrisome than when the sovereign debt crisis erupted last year – fear has yet to grip the tape in the same indiscriminate fashion.
Bulls can look at the price structure of the market and find consolidation within a relatively narrow range. Bears can look at the same structure and find a broadening top with diminishing participation and desensitized participants.
The devil is in the details.