Market Anthropology

Market Anthropology: You Say Tomahto I say Tomato

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:54 +0000

Wednesday, November 23, 2011 You Say Tomahto I say Tomato I typically laugh out loud when I hear a pundit refer to technical analysis as voodoo. Am I offended because it’s one of the tools in my approach? Certainly not. I really could not be bothered, as long as I am on the right side of the market. If I didn’t use TA, there’s no way that I could be consistently profitable in a market such as this. When you think about it – broadly speaking, the way I approach technical or relationship analysis is no different than…

The post Market Anthropology: You Say Tomahto I say Tomato appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: Yield Notes

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:54 +0000

Wednesday, March 12, 2014 Yield Notes Since testing and ultimately being rejected by the upper limits of last September’s highs, 10 year yields have consolidated in a narrow 20 basis point range between ~ 2.6-2.8%. Our general take on long-term yields has been that despite their historically low disposition, they became comparatively stretched to an extreme last year after the Fed pivoted their policy posture with respect to QE. We have been looking for a long-term range to develop between the extremes of the past two years, naturally with yields working their way lower through the balance of this year. …

The post Market Anthropology: Yield Notes appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: Yield – at the Fork

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:53 +0000

Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Yield – at the Fork After breaking down in September, 10 year yields have crept up and kissed the backside of their 50 day moving average. From a reference perspective to the two previous cycles (94′ & 04′) in which the Fed rattled the markets with motions to withdraw monetary accommodations – there lies a fork in the comparative road. Although the kabuki theater in Washington has muddled the intentions and postures of the Fed, we continue to work from the perspective that most of the heavy lifting has already been done in the bond market…

The post Market Anthropology: Yield – at the Fork appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: Y2K=QE2

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:52 +0000

Monday, April 18, 2011 Y2K=QE2 History shows us that each bubble needs a tragic muse. The Nasdaq Bubble had both the allure and fear of a new millennium. Y2K was on one hand a software and infrastructure motivator, as well as a philosophical romance; drunk on the notion of a new era that would transform all that we understood and perceived about the world through technology. With gold and silver today, it’s just as manic, evermore disturbingly romantic – and really just plain dark. It’s a bubble with a raging mood disorder. At once both manic and depressive. Currency debasement! Manipulated markets!…

The post Market Anthropology: Y2K=QE2 appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: XLF Comparative Study – Update

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:51 +0000

Tuesday, November 8, 2011 XLF Comparative Study – Update Here’s an update of the XLF comparative study from after the close today. While the market followed the script of strength over the past two sessions, it was actually weaker than I anticipated. Perhaps tomorrow it will fulfill the proportion of the analog, but there were more than a few cracks in the markets short term technical picture that it looks increasingly unlikely. For that reason, I included an additional study that is a little further down the road in the financial crisis – where the rebound failed to exceed the…

The post Market Anthropology: XLF Comparative Study – Update appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: Winning

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:50 +0000

Sunday, April 10, 2011 Winning As we spring from the financial armageddon that was 2008, market sentiment has been swinging as wildly as Charlie Sheen’s public persona. One week the sky is falling in Europe – the next it’s a Fed induced panacea a trader would be foolish to ignore. And yet throughout the tumult and bipolar emotional spasms that have become as commonplace as a Charlie Sheen meltdown, the market continues to demonstrate all the characteristics and innuendo we have come to understand is Winning. I find myself asking a few basic questions. Namely, what can we make out of…

The post Market Anthropology: Winning appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: Why Gold May Finally Be Turning Higher

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:50 +0000

Tuesday, January 6, 2015 Why Gold May Finally Be Turning Higher We came into last year with the idea that despite a historically low disposition at 3 percent, the 10-year yield had become stretched at a relative performance extreme. In less than two years, yields had run up over 100% above the July 2012 cycle lows around 1.4 percent. Even in context of previous rate tightening cycles, such as the one in 1994 that had caught the market offsides – the move was massive. When expressed on a logarithmic scale, the less than two year rip was the most extreme…

The post Market Anthropology: Why Gold May Finally Be Turning Higher appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: Where the Wild Things Are

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:50 +0000

Monday, February 27, 2012 Where the Wild Things Are “And now,” cried Max, “let the wild rumpus start!” – Where the Wilds Things Are – Maurice Sendak For many different reasons, silver has been an important asset to follow and contrast over the last decade. From appraising inflationary and disinflationary pressures, to the respective risk appetites of the collective – silver, and more importantly, silver relative to gold – has been a key asset and relationship to follow. I went over a number of these and my variant perspective on them in my last note of 2011 (see Here). I often…

The post Market Anthropology: Where the Wild Things Are appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:49 +0000

Monday, April 4, 2011 Where the Rubber Meets the Road As the Fed chatter crescendos with the approaching conclusion of QE2, and the ECB widely expected to raise interest rates this coming Thursday, stormier seas are forecast to arrive in the financial markets at any moment. And while asset prices have continued their collective ascent on the backs of an accommodative Fed, the box has only gotten smaller in terms of their respective maneuvers within it. This could be where some rubber meets the road for the inflationistas. It also may be a good time to look back at 1994…

The post Market Anthropology: Where the Rubber Meets the Road appeared first on Market Anthropology.

Market Anthropology: When it Comes to Gold – It’s All Relative

admin — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:05:49 +0000

Monday, March 4, 2013 When it Comes to Gold – It’s All Relative As of this morning, the precious metals miners (GDX, XAU) continue to trade under significant pressure. Across the daily timeframe, we have followed the structure and momentum signatures of capitulation in the BKX relative to the broader market in the first quarter of 2009. Similar to my note a few weeks back in Apple, the ratio’s TRIX indicator is on the cusp of breaking its previous low this past July. Quite similar to the 09′ comparative, relative price led lower – with momentum (as expressed by the…

The post Market Anthropology: When it Comes to Gold – It’s All Relative appeared first on Market Anthropology.