Market Anthropology: a Farmers Market

Monday, April 28, 2014

a Farmers Market

They say a snowy winter preludes a bumper harvest. With Apple tacking on more than 12% since earnings last week, we are prudently taking some bushels to market – with expectations of buying them back again in a few months. 

Should our momentum comparative continue to prove prescient, it looks like the summer should offer up a seasonal sale. While we would estimate the stock could have another ~3% of upside from here, we don’t see much more and defer to the comparative for guidance. 

Since we began contrasting the historic oil comparative in December of 2012, we have utilized it as a mean reversion template of comparable market trends. Both were the deepest, most dominant and crowded trades of their day and have expressed very similar reflexes as they boomed from the mean, busted below and now seen in Apple today – bounced its way back to long-term trend performance. 

While our long-term expectations still remain favorable, we do expect Apple to continue its stair-step and consolidating pattern as it regains its swagger.


For further reading on this concept – see some of our previous Apple notes:

Apple Cider
Reboot Complete
Apple Reboots 
Apple Picking
Fruit Salad
Apple Turnover
The Universal Law of Gravitation